Final predictions - 2012 Academy Award nominations

Here are my final predictions in the major six categories.  It's one of those weird years where I wouldn't be shocked to see a few surprises in the nominations and things not matching up with Globe, SAG or Critic's Choice.  In categories I haven't predicted, I am rooting on Bill Cunningham New York and We Were Here in documentary and Winnie the Pooh in animated.  How has Pooh not been nominated so far this year?  Just sad.  :-)  I'm also hoping 50/50 gets in for Best Screenplay like it did with the Writer's Guild.  This year there can be anywhere from 5-10 nominees for Best Picture.  I am currently predicting 7 but have put down my other three guesses in case there are more.  Here we go!  Nomination morning is in mere hours.  

Best Picture
'The Artist
'The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
(If there are 8-10 nominees:  War Horse followed byBridesmaids and Ides of March)
Should have been a contender:  Drive

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
(alt.  Tate Taylor, The Help)
Should have been a contender:  Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
(alt. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter)
Should have been a contender: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50

Best Actress
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
(alt. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs or Charlize Theron, Young Adult)
Should have been a contender:  Mia Wasikowska, Jane Eyre

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
(alt. Jonah Hill, Moneyball)
Should have been a contender:  Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
(alt. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants)
Should have been a contender:  Carey Mulligan, Shame

Nomination morning looms

So here we are.  Oscar nomination morning is on Tuesday and a consensus seems to have been reached.  'The Artist' has become the clear front runner for Best Picture, with 'The Descendants', 'Hugo', 'The Help' and 'Midnight in Paris' in competition to be a second place finisher in some ways.  They always say the downside to being a front runner is backlash, though at this point it's hard to see anything mowing down 'The Artist' to take the top prize.  I always welcome a surprise though, especially as 'The Artist' doesn't personally rank in my top of the year, although I deeply admire the craftsmanship and the heart of the film quite a lot.

I can definitely see this being a year quite like the 'Brokeback Mountain'/'Crash' year (which I often don't like to think back on) where Best Director goes to the director of a film that doesn't win Best Picture.  I could easily see Alexander Payne or Martin Scorsese pulling this off.  As Dave Karger mentioned on GoldDerby with Tom O'Neil, only if the 'The Help' manages to pull off the Best Director nomination do things start to look a little more interesting.  But seeing as Tate Taylor was not recognized by the DGA likely in favor of David Fincher for that fifth slot, the chances of this happening appear to be slim.

Yes, I'm one of those crazy people here on the West Coast who voluntarily wakes up at 5:30 a.m. PT for the nominations and then promptly goes back to sleep.  For some reason, I find this exciting.  Also, it's kind of nice to see things as they happen live instead of immediately being greeted to the Facebook posts, Tweets and complaints about the nominations otherwise.

I will post my final predictions on Monday.  As far as those who could potentially be in danger on nomination morning, I'm rooting for Tilda Swinton, Melissa McCarthy and Michael Fassbender to get the nominations they deserve and keep their streaks going.  If AMPAS wants to give me something really out there and incredible like nominating Mia Wasikowska, or showering 'Drive' with love in any way, I'd be downright elated.